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tv   The Kudlow Report  CNBC  July 5, 2012 7:00pm-8:00pm EDT

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that made america rule the '80s and '90s? plus, chinese, british and european central banks and european central banks eased, the dow shrugged. will tomorrow's jobs numbers make the fed ease, too? and why is mitt romney flip-flopping on the obama care tax? jack welsh and rupert murdoch are telling mitt romney, fire your staff. "the kudlow report" moments away. you just got a dose of discipline that i think is going to save and make you a lot of money. don't ignore it. remember discipline. that's your only friend in a tough time. i'm jim cramer. i'll see you tomorrow. why are rupert murdoch and jack walsh calling for mitt romney to fire his top campaign staff? good evening, everybody. i'm larry kudlow, back and rearing to go. this is "the kudlow report." our top story tonight, fire the
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staff. rupert murdoch, jack welch, the biggest names in business are saying that romney is not tough enough and he lacks the stomach to take on president obama. and by the way, why in the world did mitt romney flip-flop on the obama care tax hike? why did he do it? also this evening, why have ceos lost confidence in the american economy? only 17% think positively on the my in the second quarter. that was 67% in the first. and worse yet, they don't see it getting any better. we have two powerhouse ceos who are my special guests to weigh in. tomorrow's jobs numbers are going to be critical. stocks lost 212 points last time. let's hope it doesn't happen again. first up, president obama embarks on his swing state bus tour. our very own john harwood joins
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us with some of the details. what's he saying, john? >>. >> reporter: larry, you know the president got the health care ruling he wanted from the supreme court last week. his poll numbers have been stabilizing and he set out on a bus tour to court working class voters with a message his campaign thinks has been work, to attack mitt romney's record at bain capital. his bus tour targets include ohio and pennsylvania, 38 electoral votes between them. his bus tour messages are, one, the administration filed a wto complaint against china on the duties it placed on american automobiles after the u.s. bailed out the auto industry. secondly, attacking romney for his record at bain as the so-called outsourcer in chief. and third, his campaign is hitting romney for having offshore bank accounts. they think this is powerful. here's the president today. >> unlike my opponent, i want to stop giving tax breaks to companies shipping jobs overseas
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and start rewarding companies investing right here in toledo, right here in ohio. governor romney's experience has been in owning companies that were called pioneers of outsourcing. that's not my phrase. >> reporter: but, of course, mitt romney was quiet today, taking some downtime on the trail. yesterday he interrupted his fourth of july to make that reversal that you mentioned, saying the supreme court has ruled the obama health mandate a tax, contradicting an aide who said something different a couple of days before. that puts him in line with conservatives but makes him vulnerable to that charge of flip-flopping. >> that was one of those etch-a-sketch phrases. do you think more is coming? >> reporter: well, sure, but i think mitt romney is the last word in the campaign. it is much more important what he says than any aide says. >> good to know that mitt romney speaks for the campaign. john, thank you very much. romney's feeling the heat. but it's not the oppressive
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nationwide temperatures making mitt sweat. it's widespread criticism from both sides of the aisle over his flip-flop on whether the obamacare mandate is a penal or a tax. take a listen. >> he disagrees that the mandate was a tax. >> the supreme court is the final word, right? isn't that the highest court in the land? and they said it's a tax, right? so it's a tax. >> it's a tax, it's a tax, it's a tashgs finally. but why did he flip-flop? joining us in a moment, we have tom hartman, lars larsen and michael medved. but first, i want to bring in cnbc contributor bob costa who's been spending time in romney world. bob, who speaks for the romney campaign? >> mitt romney is the only one who speaks for the romney campaign. but there's so much confusion
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because the boston campaign headquarters can't decide if it's a penalty or a tax. romney is so scared of his massachusetts health care plan being called a tax because it includes a mandate, he's been dancing around the issue. it's a bad booweek for the romn campaign. >> who's throwing sand in the gears? >> you have a few weal, eric fehrnstrom made the comment earlier this week. stuart stevens is the chief stat gist and matt rhoades is the campaign manager. >> i want to ask you this question, jack welch, rupert murdoch, they're all saying they should clean out, that the romney campaign does not have what it takes to defeat obama. what's your thought, robert costa, looking at this command that created this flip-flop on mandates versus tax hikes? do they have what it takes or is mr. murdoch correct? >> i've been following these
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guys for a year. they're pretty ruthless. in the primary they went up against santorum, gingrich, knocked them out of the race. they've been competitive with obama in the polls. the biggest concern for the romney campaign may not be the operatives but is romney himself. will he be assertive on this tax issue, campaigning on the obamacare mandate, equalling a tax or will he be as he was this week, kind of unsure? may not be the operatives. could be the candidate as well. >> thank you, robert costa, we appreciate it. lars larsen, i want to go to you on. why isn't romney saying that he will cut taxes whereas obama is going to raise taxes on obamacare? it's a nice, simple message, lars larsen. why doesn't he have the presence of mind to do it? >> i honestly don't know because this is one of the biggest questions i've had about romney, whether or not he has what it takes to do the job. we all know the country can't take four more years of obama. but romney has fumbled this one.
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he's the ultimate gatekeeper. he's the one who needs to say, we need to have one message and i don't see why the message can't be, it is a tax because that was the power that the supreme court said had to be used to implement it. but it's also effectively a penalty on everyone who's going to have to pay it. all americans who have to pay this tax will be penalized by it. the others who buy health care as an alternative -- >> but the key word is tax. this word penalty has to be scrubbed from romney's vocabulary. the key word should be tax. story today, tom hartman, i know you're going to disagree with this. but there's 13,000 pages of irs and other regulations to monitor the tax hike from obamacare, which is now constitutional jurisprudence. how can obama possibly deny it and how can romney himself possibly deny it? >> i'm not sure that the 13,000 pages is real, first.
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second, this penalty or tax, whatever you want to call it n massachusetts it affects fewer than 1% of people. when the heritage foundation originally proposed it as an alternative to hillary care and newt gingrich carried this in the '90s, they said it would affect between 1% and 3% max people. the reason mitt romney is trying to have it both ways is because he realizes this is a very, very small piece of anything. very few people are going to be affected by this at all. >> i think the whole middle class is going to be affected by it. why doesn't romney just come out and make a speech outlining his views? he says he's going to reverse obamacare. so he should make a speech. obama is going to raise tax and i'm going to have tax credits so people can have a free market health care. where is romney's speech? >> it's coming. a lot of this is just the outrageous double standard.
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the real flip-flop on this issue is not by romney. it's by obama and his administration which said time and time and time again, this is not a tax. there's no tax increase. now the supreme court of the united states, as mitt romney pointed out yesterday, the supreme court of the united states has certified, yes, it is, indeed a tax. and there's no question at all. if you go back, larry, and i would challenge you to do that. listen to mitt romney's excellent statement the day the supreme court handed down its decision, last thursday. it was clear. and he condemned president obama for breaking his promise on taxes. >> i understand. but then he muddled it or his guy muddled it -- >> eric fehrnstrom shouldn't speak for romney anymore. eric fehrnstrom is mr. etch-a-sketch. >> is it true that president obama is the greatest flip-flopper of all because he's said for years oots a mandate, not a tax and now injuries
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prudence says it is a tax. tom, isn't obama the biggest flip-flopper here? >> frankly, obama argued before the supreme court that it was a tax. that was one of their arguments. again, by conflating this small penalty, this $600 penalty is going to hit fewer than 1% of people, with all of obamacare where states set up free market exchanges and people can buy insurance at lower prices, it doesn't serve -- >> larry. >> it confuses the american people. >> lars larson, i have to ask you, i think obama has deliberately confused the whole issue. lars, the entire republican party, including the congress, including the house, is going to use the idea that there is an obamacare tax. that is what the court, for better or worse, ruled. and they're going to overturn it on that basis. so i want to ask you, lars, will mr. romney and team romney now stay wit in a unified republican argument so that they can repeal
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it on july 11th and work through there from the campaign? will they be unified? will they get their line straight finally? >> it's the only way he's going to win. and he can use this confusion to his advantage. the fact is the president has not been clear about it. he says it's a tax, it's not a tax. he's argued both sides. he is at the base not telling the american people the truth and he's doing it do their disadvantage. and hartman's point, tom, with all due respect, you say it was 1% in massachusetts. the thing is, massachusetts is a different state in that it was heavily doctored, already heavily insured. it was the best test case for this and it didn't go well. a lot of americans are going to make a conscious choice not to buy the health care and pay the tax. >> i have to leave it there. i wish we had more time to go through this. thank you, gentlemen. coming up, june jobs judgment eve. the all-important jobs report out tomorrow. last month, jobs were incredibly disappointing.
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stocks fell 212 points. a cnbc poll a survey of economists have the number at another anemic 100,000. investors and politicians holding their breath. how will the jobs report hit the economy? how will it hit presidential politics? and how will it hit the stock market? later on, ceo confidence plunges according to a new survey. we're going to let import zuckerman and andy puzder talk it out. free market capitalism is the way to prosperity, remember. more on that later in the show. well hello, welcome to hotels.com. summer road trip, huh?
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whichever way tomorrow's jobs numbers fall, it's going to be a leading indicator for the economy, the presidential race and the stock market. so last month, 69,000 number caused a 212-point selloff. 69,000 minus 212, not good. here to see if anything is going to be any better, we bring in david goldman and dean baker. dean, start with you. we had a little stronger adp
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number today, up 176,000. jobless claims fell a little more. even though the ism services was down, that's bad, the employment survey in there was up. let me ask you, do any of these data points suggest tomorrow could be an upside surprise on jobs? >> i'm not going to be surprised on the upside. i think people are far too moved by short-term fluctuations. i'm betting we see 160,000, 165,000 tomorrow. the unemployment rate will stay at about 8.2%. people overestimated the weakness of the economy in the spring just as they did in the winter. we had better-than-trend story december, january, february because of the unusually good weather. but that meant we didn't get the ordinary spring hiring we would see. now we're getting back to trend. that's around 160,000, 17,000 a month. not great, but not a disaster. >> i have a bid of 160,000 to 165,000. i think the consensus is 120,000
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to 125,000. what do you think is right? >> i'm below everything, larry. the one decisive thing in this picture is that we have the worst investment outlook in the post-war period, no exceptions. we're still 10% lower as a supply cider. i say, no investment, no jobs, no jobs, no spending. that's why every number we've gotten this week has disappointed us decisively on the downside. there are just no sources of strength. the consumer is tapped out. we still have very low borrowing last month, personal savings rate is too low. exports are tapped out. but that investment picture, which i see as conditioned by the worst tax increase in american history, obamacare and other regulatory uncertainty has just kept investors putting their money under the mattress. >> dean baker, you heard dave goldman. higher taxes, higher regulation, higher obamacare spells lower investment and lower jobs
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numbers. >> i'm looking at the data out of the commerce department. we had a big uptick in construction on the private side. we got data on durable goods orders, new capital goods. that was a big uptick. about 1.5% in may, with and without aircraft orders. i see a lot of good numbers here. i'm not reading the talking points. i'm looking at the data. >> if you look at the data carefully -- >> i do. >> most of the durable goods orders are going to export. the actual consumption of goods by american companies are way below the peak. i corresponds exactly to the gdp numbers on nonresidential private fixed investment. 10% below where we were in 2007 -- >> you didn't hear about the housing bubble. >> you didn't hear me. excluding house k, talking strictly nonresidential. i've tracked all the exhort and import numbers from capital
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goods to try to get an idea of how much capital we're consuming. the answer is it's extremely low, worst than the post-war period. >> i could show you different data. equipment software share gdp is just about back to its george w. bush level. you may want to attack him. but we're back to where we were before the downturn begin. i think that's pretty good. we have a lot of sectors of the economy that have a huge amount of excess capacity. >> we have this ism manufacturing report. inside that report was a huge deflation of prices. dean, i worry about deflation. in fact, i worry about worldwide deflation. in fact, i worry about global recession. i'm not quite there yet. but i'm worried about it. if any of that stuff is remotely true, we're going to see it in tomorrow's jobs number. >> larry, last time i've been on your show, you were worried about inflation. you have to make up your mind. >> i know. i've been watching deflation for the last two or three months. >> last time, you were worried
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about high oil prices. come on, one way or the other. both can't be a problem. >> which is it? dave goldman -- >> we have weak growth around the world. it's not the u.s. determining the world market in oil. we've seen a slowdown in china, slowdown in latin america, slowdown in europe. you're going to blame that on president obama? >> we have a weakness in exhort orders. for example, we had a big kick from china during 2011, pure stagnation in exhorts to china in 2012. that will probably improve has the chinese stimulus kicks in. but the decisive thing, which is the overall gdp commitment of nonresidential private fixed investment is worse than at any time in the post-war period. we've never been at 10% -- >> i have to leave it there. >> that's obama. >> dean baker, in the last # 0 days, i have seen a lot of signs and i call them as i see them. there's deflationary signs. >> bring me on next week to laugh if it's a bad number
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tomorrow. >> thank you both very much. up next, mitt romney -- the thermometer is in triple digits, too. matters. pioneers in outsourcing us jobs supports tax breaks overseas. insourcing. industry and favors bring jobs home. it matters. this message.
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cnbc's john harwood is back with us and he's got some more details on that as well as all the late-breaking news coming into the cnbc newsroom. good evening again, john. >> reporter: mitt romney had a very successful fund-raising month in june. nbc news confirms that more than $100 million divided three ways between the romney campaign, the republican national committee and the romney victory fund. we won't know how the money's split until july 20th when the official reports are due. darrell issa's committee released its report on countryside financial vip program which discounted mortgages for members of congress for both parties, cabinet officials and officials of fannie mae. the vip program was, quote, an effort to create a favorable impression of countrywide on capitol hill. and the power is mostly on in the mid-atlantic states but nearly a third of electricity customers in west virginia are still offline. and fresh storms are creating
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new power problems in some areas, though nothing like the mass outages that began last friday. >> many thanks, john harwood. we appreciate it. what about this $100 million from romney? does that compare with obama? is he running away with the money race, john? >> reporter: no, he's not running away with it. we saw last month that mitt romney threw those various entities outraised the comparable entities for president obama and he's catching up. obama's had more catch on hand, raised more total cash. but we've seen republicans do better with the super pacs outside the campaigns, those are clearly having an impact on both sides. but the republicans have greater volume and cash in those super pacs. i do think the bottom line, though, is money raising, i doubt will decide this race. both of these candidates are going to have enough money to get their messages out and there's going to be tremendous news coverage of this race all the way through. >> john, thank you very much. coming up, jobs and
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presidential politics, the election just four months away. a couple of more reports like april and may, and obama could kiss a second term good-bye. so will tomorrow be a game-changer? we'll ask two political pros, former governor howard dean and senator kay bailey hutchison of texas, up next. choose control.
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welcome back to "the kudlow report." i'm larry kudlow. in this half hour, why is ceo confidence in the economy plunging? it dropped 50 percentage points in the last quarter. what is going on here? and where are the animal spirits that made the u.s. rule the global economy in the '80s and the '90s? where are they? also tonight, jobs, stocks and the fed. the europeans, the brits and the chinese all ease their central bank policies. will tomorrow's jobs report make the fed go next? first up, the obama and romney campaigns have their own fingers cross this had evening. tomorrow's jobs report could be an election game-changer. here to discuss is former
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vermont governor howard dean. and we welcome back kay bailey hutchison. howard dean, the consensus survey for jobs tomorrow is about 100,000 to 125,000. if the actual number falls in that zone, i think your man obama is a cooked goose. >> i don't think so, larry. obviously we'd like better numbers than that. a lot of it depends on the public ratio. last month we saw job numbers were not that great except they were much better in the private sector and the public sector went down because of all the problems the states are having. it's going to be a pretty sophisticated analysis. the truth is, right now, this is not what's going to determine the election. right now, the biggest problem that mitt romney has is that most people think he doesn't care about ordinary people in merck america. >> senator hutchison, it was wonderful to listen to my friend
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howard dean dance around that question. but let me put it to you in a different fashion. is it still possible for these jobs numbers to produce a game changer? for example, let's say you get 200,000, 250,000. is that a game changer or are public opinions and voter preferences already locked in? >> larry, i do think it's locked in. i think that everybody knows from anecdotal evidence to the numbers that this is a flat economy, that we have been treading water for two years at least and it's just treading water. and we are not seeing movement for the key reasons that obamacare is looming out there and small businesses -- and all businesses are saying, wait a minute, that's a huge cost. plus, the tax cuts that are going out of existence at the end of this year. and businesspeople are saying, i
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can't invest because i don't know what my liabilities are going to be from government. and i think that's why it's flat and it's flat no matter what happens, really, in the numbers that are being crunched. people don't feel good about this economy. >> howard dean, roughly 20 new or increased taxes in obamacare. you think that has something with this low consensus job figure? >> well, president obama's got an ad up showing that governor romney raised taxes on 1,000 things in massachusetts. i think we're getting into the overheated rhetoric season. i think we've been there for a while. i would disagree with senator hutchison about one thing. first of all, i don't think the numbers are baked in, for sure. i think people really aren't paying attention. one of the reasons that governor romney is going to get away with all this his spokesman said one thing and he said something else about whether this was a tax or
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not is nobody's paying attention right now, especially this week. i think things will get baked in around september when people really start to pay attention. but the real problem is, again, not the private sector. the private sector's adding jobs. it's the public sector that's losing. jobs are jobs and that matters. i think there are a lot of people who blame the republicans for not passing anything, not passing the president's jobs bill, not passing anything, just basically the republican leader of the senate saying the only thing he carried about was getting rid of president obama. that is probably not going to help the republican candidate very much. the other problem is mitt romney's not had a positive statement about anything yet. people don't know what his program is because he doesn't seem to have a program. he keeps saying these things and they turn out to be nebulous. i think the campaign hasn't been fully engaged yet. i don't think tomorrow is going to be a deal-breaker for either side. >> senator hutchison, the distinguished former ceo jack welch had something similar to say as howard dean, that mitt romney does not have yet a clear message on how to improve the
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economy. do you think that jack welch is right? >> well, first of all, let me say that he has a record of increasing jobs in massachusetts when he was governor and he has a record of knowing the private sector. he has a record of running the olympics and getting it out of the ditch and making it a great olympics in utah. he has a record of performance. what people are going to be voting on when they go into that booth is the obama record. and it is abysmal. the obama record is nothing but more debt, more regulations, more taxes and now a health care bill that is going to transform for the worse the greatest health care system in the world. we're going to be taking away the doctor/patient relationship. eventually we're going to have a government system. and we're going to be like canada and great britain. those are wonderful countries, but the one thing that people don't like about the way those
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countries run is their health care because there's no capability to get the extraordinary care that we have in this country. and that is why obamacare will drive us to do. >> i hate to disagree with that because i really think a lot of kay bailey hutchison. but the fact is canada has a much higher rating among its own patients than the united states health care systems. both systems have faults. but unfortunately you cannot say this is the -- america is the best health care system in the world. it's only the best health care system in the world for people who have insurance. and the people of uninsured people has gone up a lot because of the economic situation. i think the obamacare is actually from the republican point of view a very good thing, since he copied mitt romney. that's not a surprise. what this bill does is the future of american health care is going to be in the private sector. and there are some, including me, who didn't think that was all a good an idea. but that's what's going to happen as a result of adopting this bill. >> i want to give senator
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hutchison the last word. what howard dean said is a politically potent and of the-repeated statement. that obamacare is copying what mitt romney did in massachusetts. briefly, senator hutchison, what is your response to that? >> well, you can't have it both way. i do respect governor dean. but he can't have it both ways, criticizing mitt romney's record, creating jobs and taking a very small percentage of the population that was uninsured and trying to fix it with a state program. we don't have a minuscule number here that we're dealing with. we shouldn't tear down the people who do have health insurance and use that as a way to give other people coverage. what we need to do is create more affordable health care access, which we can do without tearing down the system we have. that's what mitt romney will do and it's what he said he will
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do. >> seems to me just a few tax credits for some consumer choice across state lines and risk pools for those who are already ill. we don't have to -- >> i'm with you. >> you don't have to take over 16% of the economy. and if we have 12 million people that need help, howard dean n this great country of ours, i would just give to it them without taking over the economy. i'll have you both back again. i shouldn't have opened that box. >> i'm for larry's plan. >> many thanks to both of you. regardless of tomorrow's jobs report, mitt romney has already staked the fate of his campaign on the fate of the economy. my question tonight is, isn't it time for romney to ramp up his rhetoric against obama's economic policy? who better to ask than our next guest, he's a former rnc chairman and former mississippi governor, haley barbour. thanks for coming back. i want to ask you, we touched on
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this briefly at the beginning of the show, rupert murdoch, right, who has wisdom and he's been around the block. rupert murdoch says that mitt romney does not have the stomach or the heart to beat obama. if you were going to take over the romney campaign, what would the first thing you would do -- how would you change things? >> well, first of all, larry, i would say this, governor dean, who i have great respect for, kept saying tonight on your show what obama is trying to get away from. and he said, the private sector is doing fine. that on the jobs report tomorrow, the private sector is going to be doing fine, it's that we don't have enough people working for the government. and, boy, is that very obamaesque because obama thinks the answer to all of our problems is bigger government, more government spending, more taxes, more deficit, more debt. and most americans like you and i, like you and me, think just the opposite. what's the first thing i'd do?
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i would say to mitt romney that beginning in august, you not only have to make this election a referendum on obama's miserable record and failed presidency, you have to give people a choice. you have to give people something to vote for. i don't think that the timing is wrong. i think the timing starts in august. but at the end of the day, this will be a referendum on obama's record. on his policies, which are failed policies, but if mitt romney gives people something to vote for, that makes it so much easier for this referendum to succeed. >> governor barbour, that's the reagan model. let's do that. reagan had a great way of encapsulating his program into, what, four or five points, really. spending, taxing, deregulating
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and a strong military and a strong defense. seems to me, governor, that you've got to get mitt romney to distill his program into something that's understandable to ordinary people and four or five key points and go 24/7 with them, governor, 24/7, do not depart. no snafus about health care mandates versus taxes. just get your points down and keep doing that forever and ever. >> larry, i wouldn't agree with you on that. i am somebody -- i'm a reaganite. i come out of the reagan administration. reagan gave people something to vote for. but let's never forget, the election in 1980 was a referendum on jimmy carter's record. and the american people knew that was a record of failure yet until september, jimmy carter was ahead in the polls. he was ahead 15 points in the spring. because people weren't sure about reagan. but they knew they didn't want
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carter but they had to make sure there was something else there. but there is a timing to that, larry. there is a timing to that that's very important. and right now, we are seeing people who think the economy is much worse than obama tells them, that they know that this health care plan, obamacare, that valerie jarrett, the president's number one adviser said on the radio, we'll get it any way we can get it. which means, we'll get it without admitting to the american people it's the largest tax increase in history. but all of those things, the american people know are hurting the economy, making it harder to create jobs. and as kay bailey hutchison wisely said a while ago, they understand that obamacare is going to make their health care worse. but it's going to cost more. they're going to pay more and get less. the real issue is jobs and the economy. it is a referendum on obama. >> but, haley --
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>> give them something to vote for. >> with all due respect, you are one of the greatest republican strategists of our lifetime. we both come out of the reagan administration. you get a mediocre jobs number tomorrow, i think you have to say, this is underperforming, this is an anemic recovery and it is an economic referendum on obama. but, haley, i think you also -- mr. romney has to say very clearly what he stands for, how he will fix this anemic recovery, which has caused so much heartache and so much heartburn. i think it has to be a combination of both. i think that's pretty much what ronald reagan did. he managed to pull off both at the same time. that's why he was such an effective politician. i have to get out of here. i shouldn't sermonize. >> it's a matter of timing, larry. >> governor, thank you. ceo confidence in the future of our economy has plunged. where are the animal spirits
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from the '80s and the '90s that we love so much? america ruled the world. we can rule the world again. two of our nation's top business leaders join us to talk about what the heck is wrong. we'll be right back. out to be would you mind if i go ahead of you?omer. instead we had someone go ahead of him and win fifty thousand dollars. congratulations you are our one millionth customer. people don't like to miss out on money that should have been theirs. that's why at ally we have the raise your rate 2-year cd. you can get a one-time rate increase if our two-year rate goes up. if your bank makes you miss out, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. throughout our entire lives. ♪ one a day women's 50+ is a complete multi-vitamin
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three major central banks, the european central bank, the bank of england and the people's bank of china, all eased interest rates. the dow clouds down 47. the question, what's in store for jobs and stocks tomorrow? big day. here now to discuss is author of "rigged money," lee munson and jim iuorio. hello, gentlemen. lee, will the fed be the fourth central bank? if we get this 100,0001, 125,00 job numbers, will the fed get with the other ecbs and ease? >> i think the market would rally. but if we go below # 0,000, there's a high chance we're going to get some form of quantitative easing. i don't like it any more than you. but i think the fed is going to fall in line with the other guys. >> jim, what's your take on this number?
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you have the highs, the lows, the overs, the unders. what happens if you're below 100,000? >> in the short term, the market likes it okay because that makes quantitative easing a little closer. over the last week or so, we've had two decent housing numbers and two decent job numbers today. that's why the market's taken q.e. 3 a little bit off the table. tomorrow, a 90,000 or below puts it right back on and i think the stock market could raul because of that. >> flip me over to the other side. suppose we get 150,000, what does that do to the stock market? >> this is the interesting part to me. it takes q.e. 3 further off the table. temporarily the stock market is weak because it's going to take a few weeks to get used of that notion. but in the longer term, that's an excellent scenario. today, the dollar rallied because other central banks were easing. didn't seem quite as much like we had to. >> bad news is going to be good. bad ism numbers, the market rallied. anything below 90,000, i think
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it's a buying opportunity. >> what do you buy? give me a for instance? >> we like all state, the insurance place, pfizer, some health care. and we're just selling out anything commodity or energy related. keep the powder dry. >> there's commodity deflation going on right now, is there not? >> there is. and i've really taken it in the chin. i've been talking up energy all year. and i've had it. i used this last week pop to lick my wounds, take a little bit of profit. and move it someplace else. specifically just some normal tech stocks, maybe a little health care and stuff that's just broadly based and not the deflation -- >> jim iuorio, last question, i'm going to depart just a little bit. you have this big story about barclays bank lying on setting libor. u.s. banks took it on the chin today. jpmorgan down 4%. bank of america down 3%. citibank down 2.9% or 3%. are they going to get hit tooshgs? are we going to find out they were lying on libor rates?
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just this statistic, $800 trillion stands behind various contracts around the world based on libor, which these banks lied about. $800 trillion, and they're lying. what's going to happen there, jim iuorio? >> it's been rumored to have been manipulated for ten years. only now it's coming to light. it's the perception of libor that's in the process of marketing it. so in absence of specific incriminating e-mail, i think it's a difficult thing to prove. i have a tough time having this -- seeing this spread out to other things. unless they have smoking guns everywhere. but all in all, this is a great thing to get rid of the stigma hanging over libor and for us to believe that it's a non-manipulated rate is an excellent step in the right direction. >> good stuff. lee and jim, thank you, gentlemen. up next, remember the '80s? remember the '90s? building, inventing, investing,
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entrepreneurship. why is the confidence board now saying that ceo confidence has plunged once again? we ask mort zuckerman and andrew puzder why this is the case. what is wrong? where are the animal spirits? mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943. i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve
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why have ceos lost confidence in the economy? a new survey out today finds that in q2, only 17% of ceos think economic conditions have
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improved. compare that to q1 where optimism stood at 67%. so where are the animal spirits? let's ask two distinguished ceos, mort zuckerman of boston properties. and andy puzder of cdk restaurants. only 20% of the ceos expect improvement in six months. that's down from 59%. mort, what is going on here? >> what's going on is a very, very anemic recovery, despite the fact that we have the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in our history. so there's a sense that somehow there's something really wrong with the economy and there is reason to believe that. the unemployment numbers are very bad. the drop in the net worth of the american family, the government came out with a statistic, showed it dropped 40% roughly between 2007 and 2010. it's gone down since then. the same thing is true of incomes, which have gone down dramatically. it's mostly little the middle class. the people in the business world see this, know this.
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they get the response from their customers, whether the customer is in business or consumer. consumer confidence is 13 pistons to 15 points below what it's ever been during a recession. this is the worst recession we've had in 11 recessions since world war ii. so this is just reacting to what the facts are. >> andy puzder, is it possible what mort just said? we're run,ing $16 trillion in debt, debt has increased by $5 trillion in the last three years and the federal reserve has been throwing money at the economy like crazy, about $2.5 trillion. maybe, andy, it is precisely because these crazy theories of throwing money at the economy have utterly failed. is that possible? is that why confidence is dissipating? >> that's absolutely the case, larry. these keynesian theorys are ridiculous. the epa with a war on carbon fuels driving up everybody's energy costs, you have the nlrb
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wanting to drive labor costs up with uniization. won't let boeing move into a right-to-work state. you have obamacare coming in. you've got this incredible deficit spending, this tremendous debt that people are unsure whether we can recover from. and the government wonders why the economy isn't growing? it's like planting a seed in a barren field. spend all you want. people don't want to grow. they're afraid. >> mort zuckerman, in the '80s and in the '90s, we always doubled or tripled europe's growth rate. we didn't really care, didn't know much about china. the emerging world was just emerging. it was the united states with entrepreneurship and animal spirits. we led the world. we never looked back, mort. why, where, how do we bring that attitude and that factoid back to life in the economy?
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>> well, i think that's a critical question. i don't think there is a simple answer. i certainly do think that if you look to the government and to the president to provide the leadership in this country as in a sense the trailer blazers to bring back confidence, i think we're going to be very frustrated. bear in mind that we have only grown in the 33 months since this recession started, we've only grown about 5.6%. in every previous recession by this time, we had grown over this period 15%. it's a very, very weak recovery. and people are not quite sure why that is happening. one of the reasons, i have to say, is we've been in immense de-leveraging process that has wiped out huge value, as i mentioned, in the residential market, which is the largest asset on the balance sheet of the average american family. we still have huge debts, the references were made to $16 trillion in national debt. nobody sees the exit despite all the things that we have tried. so there is reason to be very, very concerned.
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the reason why it changed in the last six months, whatever expectations people had in the last six months have been shattered. >> shot down. never seen such a fast deterioration. it's an ugly story. no good for america. politics aside, it is just no good for america. thank you gentlemen. we appreciate it. that's it for tonight's show. as always, thanks for watching. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about that 401(k) you picked up back in the '80s. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like a lot of things, the market has changed, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and your plans probably have too. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so those old investments might not sound so hot today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we'll give you personalized recommendations tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 on how to reinvest that old 401(k) tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and help you handle all of the rollover details. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and bring your old 401(k) into the 21st century. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 well hello, welcome to hotels.com. summer road trip, huh? uhuh yep uch let's find you a room.
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